OTA Dispatch Issue 4 2018

Oregon Trucking Associations, Inc. Oregon Truck Dispatch Waylon Buchan OTA Director of Government Affairs LEGISLATIVE UPDATE 6 Election Recap The November election was transformative. Oregon’s legislative composition changed overnight, and Democrats established supermajority control of both the House and the Senate. In the executive branch, Governor Kate Brown held off challenger Knute Buehler by a decisive margin, despite pollster predictions of a tight race leading up to election day. Oregon voters also rejected a ballot measure which would have amended the Constitution to require a supermajority for all revenue-raising bills. Was voter turnout good in Oregon? Yes. Was it a so- called ‘blue wave’? Not really. These political ‘waves’ are typically categorized by extreme dissatisfaction with the federal government during a mid-term election cycle, demonstrated by very high voter turnout. While Oregon voter turnout was good, the 1.87 million votes cast this November were not exactly record-breaking numbers. Well, it was not a blue wave, are Oregon demographics changing? They are. Democratic voter registration advantages continue to creep upward each year. The Motor Voter program also automatically registers Oregonians to vote when they obtain a driver’s license—adding them to the pool of ever growing, and ever elusive non- affiliated voters. All these factors meant that Republican incumbents with relatively minor registration disadvantages were no longer safe. It didn’t take a wave—just a strong breeze. 2019 Legislative Session With the numbers in their favor, Democrat lawmakers will head into the 2019 Legislative Session with confidence and urgency. Speaker Tina Kotek outlined the top four priorities for democratic leadership this session, which include an increased K-12 education budget, affordable housing, Medicaid, and climate legislation known as Cap and Invest. Their belief is that Oregon’s strong economy provides the best chance in a generation to address these issues, and now that they have achieved supermajorities in both chambers, they are poised to act. While this environment is certainly very troubling for industry, one positive takeaway is that the Democrats will need to tread lightly in 2019. They cannot raise taxes on all fronts at the same time or completely ignore their Republican counterparts. Yes, they have 36 in the House and 18 in the Senate, which means they can pass revenue raising legislation without any Republican votes. But that still means at least two Republican Senators and four Republican Representatives are required to establish a quorum and pass legislation. In addition, lawmakers are aware that unpopular tax bills may be subject to a ballot referral, possibly dooming them to fail through a vote of the people. Supermajorities are not permanent, and newly elected Democrats will still be mindful of taking multiple high-profile tax votes in their first year, especially if they come from recently- flipped swing districts. For the trucking industry, the focus of this session will be climate legislation. For years, environmental advocates have pushed for California-style climate laws known as ‘Cap and Invest’. These programs limit the amount of carbon emissions in the state. Those that exceed the cap must pay for an allowance, or credit, to continue emitting carbon beyond the cap. The previously introduced versions of Cap and Invest would have dramatically raised gasoline and diesel fuel prices throughout Oregon, without any clear return on that investment. Previous versions of the legislation failed to properly navigate the nuances of the State Highway Fund or untangle the complexities of Constitutional cost-sharing between light and heavy fleets. Having learned from these previous shortcomings, legislators created dedicated committees to address climate issues. The Governor’s office has commissioned studies and To join or donate, go to www.ortrucking.org/ truck-pac! Government Affairs Update The Motor Voter program also automatically registers Oregonians to vote when they obtain a driver’s license—adding them to the pool of ever growing, and ever elusive Non-Affiliated voters.