CNGA LooseLeaf June/July 2019

Lessons Learned Marc McCormack at Bailey Nurseries: I think the big difference between now and the last recession is what we learned last time about surpluses. Before the recession, when the economy was really strong, we got wrapped up and worried too much that we were running out of product and missing sales. We reacted to the last recession by adjusting our production schedules. We learned it is better not to worry about running out but focus on selling out. We want to sell down to the bare walls because that’s when the profits really kick in. We don’t want to miss sales by huge amounts, but we want to be realistic with setting numbers. On the positive side, if we do sell out of a popular variety, that can help build anticipation for the next crop and keep prices at good levels. RB Rich Bailey at J. Frank Schmidt & Son Co.: This last recession dragged on, so it was a shock for the green industry due to its duration and long-lasting effects. When a recession lasts several years, nurseries can get to a point where inventory is backed up and unfortunately we have to destroy material. Many growers ended up taking a year or two off from planting trees because the business wasn’t there, and when it came back they needed trees! We learned a big lesson. Planning for the Next Recession Forecasting is never an easy or exact science by any means. At this company, we strive each year not to cut too much if it’s a down economy, especially when we consider the time it takes to bring certain varieties to market. Each year our goal is to produce what demand is or what it will be when the plants get to market. Since trees and evergreens take much longer, we are forecasting five to seven years out. That’s why we strive not to cut too much or increase too much in one single year — because of the time and investment it takes to bring a plant to market. Since greenhouse crops typically have a much shorter production time than field Marc McCormack Bailey Nurseries Rich Bailey J. Frank Schmidt & Son Co. RB In this conversation... Photos below and on previous page courtesy of Bailey Nurseries colorad o nga.org LooseLeaf  June/July 2019 8