FEATURED NEWS 12 West Virginia Forestry Association Mountain State Forestry | Spring 24 www.wvfa.org INTRODUCTION The grade lumber component of the hardwood sawmill industry is continually faced with cyclic fluctuations in lumber pricing. Predictability of grade lumber markets, with any level of confidence, is uncertain at best. Figure 1 illustrates the volatility in nominal pricing of 1 Common red oak and white oak lumber over a 22 year period (2001 through 2023), on a quarterly basis. The data points represent Hardwood Market Report1 pricing from the second week report for January, April, July, and October. For red oak and white oak, the period from 2004 through 2013 showed a downward trend in pricing, followed by significant peaks and valleys until 2021 and then a drastic increase in price followed by a deep drop and another spike in 2023. Figure 2 illustrates the volatility in nominal prices of 1 Common soft maple (unselected) and yellow-poplar lumber over the same time period. Yellow-poplar exhibited much more stable nominal pricing from 2001 through about 2021 and much more stable than soft maple, red oak, or white oak. Soft maple showed a bit more stability over the 2001 through 2021 period than red oak and white oak. Both yellow-poplar and soft maple experienced drastic swings in price starting in 2021, much like red oak and white oak. By Curt C. Hassler, WVU Appalachian Hardwood Center (AHC), chasslerwv@gmail.com 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2001-01 2002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 $ per MBF Year - Quarter Red Oak White Oak Figure 1. Red oak and white oak nominal pricing per mbf of 1 Common lumber from the first quarter of 2001 through the fourth quarter of 2023. Figure 2. Soft maple (unselected) and yellow-poplar nominal pricing per mbf of 1 Common lumber from the first quarter of 2001 through the fourth quarter of 2023. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2001-01 2002-01 2003-01 2004-01 2005-01 2006-01 2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 $ per MBF Year - Quarter Yellow Poplar ARE RAILROAD TIES THE ANSWER? PART II 1 HMR. 2001–2023. Hardwood Market Report: Various Volumes and Issues. HMR, Memphis, Tennessee.
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