11 THE NAFCU JOURNAL March–April 2023 References 1. National Federation of Independent Businesses, “Economic Trends” (Dec. 2022). Note that the survey has been kept since 1986. Labor quality has been the top-rated problem since 2018, when it assumed the position for the first time in the survey’s history. 2. Chair Jerome Powell, “Inflation and the Labor Market” (Nov. 30, 2022), speech delivered at Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. 3. Montes, Joshua, Christopher Smith, and Juliana Dajon. 2022. “The Great Retirement Boom: The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation.” DOI: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2022.081. in nonagricultural businesses peaked in mid-2021 at roughly 800,000. However, that figure has since declined to roughly 200,000. Each year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issues estimates for labor force growth over the next decade. The most recent forecast indicates that the BLS expects the immigration-induced labor force surge of 2022 to be an outlier. In each year from 2023 through the end of the forecast, annual growth in the labor force is expected to fall short of the annual average from the prior decade, and well short of the average from the aughts. If this forecast bears out, the struggle to fill job vacancies is likely to continue. A key competency for businesses in the 2020s will be attracting and retaining talent, but also increasing productivity so that they get the most out of their employees. Figure 2: Annual Growth in Civilian Labor Force, 2022–2031 (Forecasted) 2001–11 Annual Avg. 2011–21 Annual Avg. 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections.
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