11 THE NAFCU JOURNAL January–February 2022 March through July 2020. Compared to pre-COVID, the biggest drop in labor force participation was among those in their 60s, who may believe themselves (or friends and family members) to be at greater risk from the virus. Another factor may be stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. In November, the Washington Post reported on a trend in retirees delaying Social Security claims, potentially as a strategy to increase benefits later on. Where it is commonly believed that younger workers used pandemic savings to seek better employment opportunities, it may be that older Americans are using theirs to solidify their retirement status and to tide them over until they begin claiming Social Security benefits. If this view is correct, it does not offer much hope to employers that a large swathe of older workers is poised to re-enter the work force. The pandemic retiree is more likely to be 65 or older and well positioned financially to remain out of the labor force. Noting this trend, the Bureau of Labor Statistics devoted special attention to labor force participation among older age cohorts in its latest long-term projections. The BLS does not expect that the recent downturn in participation rates will last. By 2030, their projections call for steep increases across all 55-and-older age groups. Such a labor market would be vastly different from the one employer’s face today. Although labor may not be in such short supply, a job force made up of a growing share of older individuals that are eligible for retirement benefits could introduce new types of hiring and retention uncertainties. Where it is commonly believed that younger workers used pandemic savings to seek better employment opportunities, it may be that older Americans are using theirs to solidify their retirement status and to tide them over until they begin claiming Social Security benefits. Change in Labor Force Participation Rate vs. Pre-COVID Bars show the difference between the average monthly labor force participation rate in each age cohort from Aug 2021 through Oct 2021 and the average from Aug 2019 through Oct 2019. Source: NAFCU Research analysis of Current Population Survey monthly files (IPUMS) All Ages Under 55 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70+ -3.0 Percentage Points -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 -0.5 0.0
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