30 The Mainline historic low turnout of 31.7%, down from 33.9% in 2018. Voter turnout may be the most decisive factor in the 2024 election outcomes. 2. Competitive Congressional Campaigns: High-stakes races, such as the contest between incumbent Lori Chavez-DeRemer(R) and Janelle Bynum(D) in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District could have an impact down-ballot on state House and Senate races within Districts 5 and 4. Another competitive race is in the 4th Congressional District, where Republican Monique DeSpain and the GOP hope to unseat incumbent Democrat Val Hoyle. The 5th Congressional Race is one of the highest priority races for Republicans and Democrats nationally and unlimited campaign funds will flow into the state, which will draw high voter turnout. 3. Redistricting: Every 10 years, following the census, the Oregon Legislature redraws the boundaries of congressional and state legislative districts, to ensure equal representation based on population shifts. However, this process often has a political aspect that favors the party in power. Oregon’s redistricting, completed in 2021, strengthened Democratic control and reduced the number of competitive state legislative districts. Consequently, only three Senate races and five to eight House races are expected to be competitive for the 2024 Oregon Legislature. 4. Short-Session Agenda: During election season, the priorities set by the State Legislature can significantly influence candidate evaluations and popularity. The 2024 Short Legislative Session, high legislator turnover, strong district candidates, and BM 13 disqualification, as well as national and international developments. 1. Voter Turnout: Voter turnout during Presidential election years generally favors Democrats, due to their statewide registration advantage in Oregon. However, whether this trend will continue in 2024 is up for debate, especially with the uncertainty surrounding the impact of the Harris/ Walz ticket on swelling Democratic voter enthusiasm. Concerns about low turnout with Biden on the ticket now appear shifting with Harris competing with Trump. If Harris gains momentum, Democratic turnout could be strong, making November challenging for Republicans to overcome its current legislative imbalance… Unless however, if Trump can rally new enthusiasm among Republicans and Oregon’s massive and unpredictable non-affiliated voter base to offset the Democratic upswell. Both major parties faced difficulties in generating voter participation during the 2024 primary election, with a Overall Sentiment of Elections— What Factors Impact the 2024 Election Cycle? As the November 5th general election nears, the 2024 campaigns for legislative and statewide races are beginning to take shape, as candidates make their case with voters. The outcome of races will have a significant impact on the environment AOL’s policy team will be operating in during the 2025 Legislative Session. As advocates for the logging profession and the forestry sector, campaign season provides a vital opportunity to build quality relationships and establish rapport with candidates who are likely to win the election in November. This relation-building ensures we continue being positioned to engage with legislators effectively in the future. Focusing on these connections is critical to AOL’s lobby team successfully navigating the complex, evolving, tricky waters of Oregon’s Legislative process. The 2024 state election results will pivot on many factors, such as: voter turnout, up-ballot competitive congressional races, 2020 redistricting, the past short-session, Legislative and Statewide Races; AOL’s State-PAC ›By Chloe Haller, The Victory Group, AOL Contract Lobbyist; and Rex Storm, AOL Lobby Team 2024 Election Spotlight Political Action & Elections
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