PRLA Restaurant & Lodging Matters Spring 2020

Spring 2020  •  PENNSYLVANIA RESTAURANT & LODGING matters  • 15 Summary The U. S. economy will eventually rebound, that much is for sure. But, it may not come back as soon as we want. Previous economic panics in American history, such as the panic of 1893 or 1907, are useful in estimating the timing of improved economic activity. In both financial panics, banks, investments firms, and thousands of businesses failed, and it took four to five years for the economy to regain its pre- panic strength. Restaurant owners should expect a gradual return to normalcy over the next 12 to 24 months. Customers will come back to restaurant dining rooms when they feel comfortable doing so. A recessionary economy also means value will be a primary desire of the consumer. My heart goes out to independents, the majority of which operate sit-down restaurants. I know how hard this is and how much blood, sweat, and tears they’ve invested in their restaurants. The virus is going to result in a large number of restaurant closures. However, America is a creative place. Entrepreneurial individuals are already dreaming up new concepts. It will take two to three years to clean up this mess, but then watch out, new ideas and energetic operators will find a much broader runway. • John Hamburger is president of Franchise Times Corp., which publishes Franchise Times magazine (www.franchisetimes.com ) and the Restaurant Finance Monitor (www.restfinance.com) .