PRLA Restaurant & Lodging Matters Fall 2020

4 •  PENNSYLVANIA RESTAURANT & LODGING matters  •  Fall 2020 INDUSTRY OUTLOOK BEFORE MID-MARCH, my answer would have been a simple “nothing.” But things have changed drastically over the last seven months, and the pandemic’s toll on the industry I love has caused many sleepless nights. Solutions are in short supply right now. Our communications with the Administration have turned one-way, with Administration telling rather than listening to our concerns, advice, or expertise. The repeated admonition that we must “follow the science” without actual science to follow has been frustrating. A recent Wall Street Journal article gave a refresher on what science does. In his October 9 article, Matt Ridley tells us that “Seeing science as a game of guess-and-test clarifies what has been happening these past months. Science is not about pronouncing with certainty on the known facts of the world; it is about exploring the unknown by testing guesses, some of which prove wrong.” Ridley went on to quote a 1964 lecture by noted physicist Richard Feynman at my alma matter, Cornell University, where he defined the scientific method. Feynman said, “First, you guess. Then you compute the consequences of your guess. Then you compare those consequences with the evidence from observations or experiments. If [your guess] disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong. In that simple statement is the key to science. It does not make a difference how beautiful the guess is, how smart you are, who made the guess or what his name is… it’s wrong.” Unfortunately for our industry, the Administration has not acknowledged that some of their guesses have been wrong. However, despite these challenging circumstances there is hope for our industry and its future. Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics and arguably one of the world’s foremost experts on travel and tourism, recently tweeted, “All our forecasts and scenarios are moored to the non- negotiable assumption that travel will fully recover. The pandemic will end. The drivers of travel—income growth, demographic shifts, the importance of meetings and the intrinsic value of a vacation—will still be intact on the other side. History supports the premise; recovery is inevitable.” He’s right. The pandemic will end, and our industry will recover. Why? Because our industry is so much more than the food you eat or the hotel bed you sleep in. Our industry delivers experiences and remembrances. Think of many of the happiest memories in your life. They probably took place or began in restaurants or on vacation. People will never give up on that. I recently spoke to a group of college-level hospitality students and was asked what the future held for them. They are worried. Many are second-guessing their decisions to make a career out of hospitality. No doubt, these thoughts are keeping them up at night. I reminded them that our industry is full of grit and determination. It’s one of reinvention, innovation, and entrepreneurial spirit. There many never be a better time to be in school studying hospitality, learning and watching in real-time how the industry has pivoted and adapted in the worst conditions imaginable to find ways to make it work. The demand to eat out or take a vacation will not go away. If anything, we’ve learned not to take those activities for granted. While I expect a few more sleepless nights before this is all over, my faith in the resilience of our industry will not waver. • John Longstreet PRLA PRESIDENT & CEO “What keeps you up at night?” "...despite these challenging circumstances there is hope for our industry and its future."