OTA Dispatch Issue 4 2017

Oregon Trucking Associations, Inc. Oregon Truck Dispatch JOIN THE OREGON TRUCK PAC LEADERSHIP CIRCLE! Bob Russell OTA Vice President/ Government Affairs LEGISLATIVE UPDATE 6 Politics in Oregon The Rocky Road Ahead P olitics in Oregon couldn’t be more different than those in Washington, D.C. In Oregon, the Democrats have strong majorities in both houses. In D.C., it is just the opposite—the Republicans are in control. Another difference is that Congress can’t seem to get anything done. The Oregon Legislature can pass virtually any liberal legislation that they choose except for tax increases where they need at least one Republican vote in each house. This is the basic reality as we look forward to the 2018 short session that begins on February 5 and concludes no later than March 9. So far, there are two key issues that the Democrats are talking about for the 2018 session. The first, and by far the biggest, is the budget. Three Republican legislators have gathered sufficient signatures to refer some of the medical related taxes, passed during the 2017 session, to voters at a special election to be held in January. Polling indicates that the public will reject these tax increases. There is a dispute about exactly which tax increases are covered by the referral; however, it is clear that at least some of the tax increases that the Legislature used to balance the budget are included. If this plays out as expected and the tax increase does not pass, the Legislature will have another sizable budget hole to fill. Look for some sort of tax on business to fit the bill. After all, it is an election year, and the Democrats will not want to raise taxes on their supporters. The other major issue that is being teed up for February is passage of a Cap and Trade system to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Legislature has setup four workgroups to further refine the Cap and Trade legislation introduced during 2017. Of course, one of the groups includes transportation. California recently reauthorized their Cap and Trade legislation. Oregon will, without doubt, heavily copy the California system. A 2017 estimate for the cost increases for gasoline under the California system is a range of 15 to 63 cents per gallon in 2021 and 24 to 73 cents per gallon in 2031. There are no current estimates for diesel fuel. Fuel cost increases of this magnitude, on top of the increases in the 2017 Oregon Transportation Funding Package, are certainly more than the industry can handle. Matter of fact, this level of increase would have a chilling effect on Oregon’s economy. As discouraging as this might be, the 2019 session is shaping up to be even worse. A number of House Republicans in swing seats have already announced that they will not be running in 2018. It is probable that the Democrats will pick up at least one seat. This will give them a super majority and allow them to raise taxes without a single Republican vote. Things are not quite as bad in the Senate, but it is possible that the Democrats could achieve a super majority as well. This means that the 2019 session could be the perfect storm for business. With such strong majorities in both houses of the Oregon Legislature To join or donate, go to www.ortrucking.org/ truck-pac!